When studying the earliest human societies, researchers use a combination of archaeological records and radiocarbon dating to create comprehensive models of population patterns. By applying advanced mathematical techniques, they can now estimate the changing sizes and distributions of ancient human populations and make more informed inferences about how societies were structured. In many regions, these models have allowed researchers to better understand the social and environmental changes that shaped the prehistoric world. Read More
One region that hasn’t yet been analysed in this level of detail is the area of the Kodjadermen-Gumelnița-Karanovo VI cultural complex – also known as KGK-VI. KGK-VI is the remains of a flourishing prehistoric society that emerged over 6500 years ago in the Eastern Balkans – part of modern-day Bulgaria and Romania.
The region encompasses a diverse array of archaeological remains, including burial grounds, copper and gold metalwork, painted pottery, and artificial mounds – the remains of settlements built on generations of discarded waste and building materials. There is also evidence for a complex trade network, where goods and raw materials were exchanged throughout the region and beyond.
In a new study, Dr Gabriel Popescu and his colleagues at the University of Bucharest used the latest modelling approaches to further reconstruct the history of this fascinating society.
Using radiocarbon dating, previous studies had pieced together a rough chronology of the society’s changing population. In their study, Dr Popescu’s team used these results as a basis for more formal models based on probability distributions – helping them to visualise the timing of certain pivotal events.
Their results clearly show that two initial core populations first emerged north and south of the Danube River around 4800–4700 BC. Over the next few hundred years, these two populations grew and spread, dispersing throughout the whole region. The civilization had reached its peak by around 4500 BC.
Not long after reaching its peak, the KGK-VI civilization began to steadily decline, after around 4350 BC. Dr Popescu’s team shows that this decline was a slow process – happening gradually over a period of 550 years – showing a more abrupt tendency between around 4150 and 3800 BC. According to the team’s results, it had completely vanished by around 3800 BC – much later than had been postulated by previous research.
Altogether, Dr Popescu’s study paints a far clearer picture of how the ancient society of KGK-VI evolved over the centuries, and eventually disappeared. The team’s results could help to draw deeper insights into the lives of our distant ancestors, and identify the roots of the cultures that ultimately shaped the world we inhabit today.
