In the study, more than 150 children aged 10 to 13 played a game modeled on slot machines. One machine had a predictable payout history, while the other was a mystery – offering greater risk, but also the possibility of higher reward. Crucially, children were able to press the machines multiple times – and exploring the new option could increase their total reward over time, if it turned out to be better than the familiar one.
Alongside the game, children rated how consistent and dependable their parents felt to them. Parents can undermine a child’s sense of predictability in many ways, including: failing to fulfill promises; difficulty regulating emotions; inconsistent discipline; frequent or unexpected custody changes; unstable housing and fluctuations in family income.
Meanwhile, the children’s parents reported past life stressors, such as divorce, moving homes, illness, or job loss.
Children who viewed their parents as less predictable were less likely to try the risky slot machine. Their choices suggest a cautious approach: sticking with familiar options, even when exploration might lead to better outcomes. Interestingly, this pattern was tied to the child’s perception of their parent’s reliability, not the parent’s own report of stressful events. The findings suggest that what truly shapes children’s behavior isn’t just what’s happening around them – it’s how stable and secure their world feels from their point of view.
Xu, Pollak and their colleagues emphasize that this isn’t about shyness or anxiety; rather, it reflects a brain tuned to conditions of unpredictability. If your environment feels unstable, your brain conserves resources and sticks with known paths instead of venturing into uncertainty.
This research points to broader implications beyond play. Learning through exploration connects to language development, problem-solving, creativity and social confidence. If children don’t feel safe enough to experiment, their growth in these areas may be limited. As Xu notes, adults must consider not only whether the environment is objectively safe, but whether children perceive it to be safe.
The findings show that building trust and predictability in parent–child relationships encourages healthy risk-taking – a necessary part of learning. Xu and Pollak plan to continue this line of inquiry: Can perceptions of reliability be shifted? And if so, can that help children embrace exploration and grow more resiliently?
This research shows that children’s belief in the reliability of their caregivers is more than emotional – it actively shapes their willingness to take the small, everyday risks that foster curiosity, discovery, and learning.
